Hierarchical Forecasting of the Zimbabwe International Tourist Arrivals

The objectives of the paper is to: (1) adopt hierarchical forecasting methods in modelling and international tourist arrivals Zimbabwe; (2) coming up with Zimbabwe Prediction Intervals (PIs) Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) to tourism forecasts. Zimbabwe’s monthly data from January 2002 December 2018 was used. dataset used before COVID-19 period were disaggregated according purpose visit (POV). Three approaches, namely top-down, bottom-up optimal combination approaches applied data. results showed superiority approach over both top-down approaches. Forecasts indicate a general increase aggregate series. combined provide new insight into arrivals. useful government, stakeholders, investors among others, for decision-making, resource mobilisation allocation. Tourism Authority (ZTA) could techniques produce informative precise set pandemic models what happen outside pandemic. During country under lockdown no report on. are planning purposes beyond